Monday, April 30, 2012

Week 18-Fx-Analysis--Charts










Week 18-Fx-Analysis


Commodity dollars vs. Usd

The bulls managed to take out 1.0467 last week with an impressive bullish candle on the daily. Although support levels where violated last week, the bears failed to make a new low and the bulls regained control quickly. I anticipate this pair to continue going further north, but do keep in mind the fundamentals this week that can impact this pair either way. The bulls are currently after 1.0557. Nzd.Usd continued going sideways last week with a aggressive finish by the bulls near the top of the channel. It looks like this pair picked up some bullish momentum, so I anticipate this pair to attempt another break out towards the north. If the bulls fail, expect further sideways movement. Usd.Cad broke out of the sideways channel towards the south last week. The bears managed to take out important levels of support and are currently after 0.9782 and 9722.  Over all, I anticipate the commodities to gain strength against the Dollar over the next little while. 

Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

Aud.Jpy failed to take out the resistance around 84.68 last week and is still pushing up against it. At the moment the bears and the bulls are fighting it out over control and this pair is stuck between support, roughly around 82.63 and resistance around 84.68. If the bulls take over control they'll be after 87.59, & if the bears take over control they’ll be after 80.52. The fact that the bulls failed to take out resistance levels last week is somewhat worrisome for the bullish momentum, for this reason I’m slightly bearish on this pair. Nzd.Jpy also failed to take out resistance levels and managed to break through the upwards trend line from the daily—Good news for the bears.  This pair is trading between 65.63 and 66.57, if break out occurs towards the south the bears will be after 64.66. If the break out occurs towards the north the bulls will be after 68.46. Cad.Jpy is the strongest of the trio and this pair managed to reach resistance levels around 82.82....but failed to break through and is currently u-turning. This pair has a beautiful bearish crown on the daily and if the bears wish to complete it, they will have to break through the upwards trend line and break support levels around 80.33. There is also a possibility of this pair bouncing of the upwards trend line and retest resistance around 82.82. Important levels for the bears are 78.85 and 77.17.  Over-all I’m slightly bearish on the commodity dollars against the yen. 

European countries Vs. Jpy

Gbp.Jpy failed to stay above the upwards trend line and proceeded to slowly slip back below it last week. This pair is currently stuck roughly between 130.19 and 131.76. The bears are putting pressure on this pair and if they succeed to break through support they’ll be after 127.04 and 126.51. If the bulls by some act of magic do take control of this pair they’ll be after 133.46. Eur.Jpy and Chf. Jpy, both failed to take out important resistance levels last week and these two are currently u-turning towards the south.  The bears for Chf.Jpy are after 85.68 with a fib target of 83.83 and for Eur.Jpy they are after 102.80 with a fib target of 100.42.  Over all this trio is pointing towards the bearish side and I anticipate the yen to strengthen further. 

Eur.Usd & Usd.Chf

There is nothing really special going on with these two, both pairs continue trading sideways in their channels.  Eur.Usd is currently on top of the channel and if the bulls manage to break through they’ll be after  1.3375 and 1.3487, if not expect a u-turn towards the bottom of the channel. Similar but in the opposite manner, Usd.Chf is sitting on support levels trying to break through. If the bears manage to break through they will be after 0.9003 and 8934, if not expect a u-turn towards the top of the channel. 

Gbp.USd
The cable continued going north last week as expected. The bulls are still after their fib target of 1.6354.

Usd.Jpy
The Yen is gaining strength across the board against different currencies and the dollar is no exception. This pair has a gorgeous bear crown on the daily and the bears are currently after 79.26 and 77.88. Looks like the bullish momentum is over on this pair...

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Forex pairs to observe 2---Eur.Usd & Usd.Chf

Eur.Usd is currently breaking out of resistance levels and Usd.Chf is trying to break through support levels. I think well see some nice moves on these pairs soon.


Forex pairs to Observe--4.25.2012--+Charts


Eur.Aud & Aud.Chf

Eur.Aud finished retracing on the daily and is currently heading back north. Looking on the 4H, we see this pair bounced off the upwards trend line and broke through resistance.  At the moment this pair is retracing and might find support around 1.2700-12750 area before it continues its move north. I will be looking for a bullish formation + a counter trend line break before I consider a long entry. The bulls are currently after 1.2891 with a fib target of 1.2981.  If support doesn’t hold, this pair will gravitate towards the upwards trend line. Aud.Chf shows the opposite picture with the bears firmly in charge. This pair is currently retracing towards resistance levels around 0.9450-0.9470 area, and if resistance holds, expects a further continuation towards the south. The bears are currently after 0.9337 with a fib target of 0.9300. 



Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Forex Pairs to Observe--4.24.2012--Charts


Usd.Jpy

Usd.Jpy tried to take out the downwards trend line with no success thus far. The bulls are currently trying once more to break through resistance levels. If the bulls succeed, they will be after 82.56 with a fib target of 82.56. Critical levels to keep an eye out for is 80.85 and 81.79, whichever one gets taken out first is the most probable direction this pair will take. For 80.85 think bearish and bullish for 81.79. 


Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Forex pairs to Observe--4.23.2012--Charts




Forex pairs to Observe--4.23.2012


Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

Aud.Jpy failed to take out resistance around 84.68 and completed a bearish crown on the 1H that caused it to drop about a 100 pips. The good news is that the bears failed to make a new low thus far and are slowly creeping up towards that resistance level again. It is quite possible for this pair to form a flat top triangle along resistance levels and continue going back and forth until a break out occurs. If the bulls take control of this pair they’ll be after 85.20 with a fib target of 85.43. if not, expect further moves down. Nzd.Jpy is currently sitting on strong support levels. This will be a crucial area for this pair to decide which way it wants to go, if the bulls take control they’ll attempt another run at taking out the resistance around 66.57. If the bears take over, they’ll attempt to power through the upwards trend line and possibly reverse this trend. Cad.Jpy is my favorite out of the trio at the moment. This pair also completed a bear crown on the 1H and had a nice bounce up shortly after. At the moment this pair is pushing up against strong resistance levels, and if the bulls succeed to break through they will be after 83.15, 83.67 with a fib target of 84.13. If resistance levels don’t hold expect a u-turn towards the south with the bears after 80.16.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Week 17 Fx Analysis--Charts









Week 17 Fx Analysis


Commodity dollars Vs. Usd

Aud.Usd broke the downwards trend line and is bouncing between support and resistance which are located roughly around 1.0335 and 1.0430. If the bulls take control of this pair they’ll attempt another run at taking that high out around 1.0467. If the bears decide to take over they will be after 1.0223. But for now  I expect further sideways movement. Nzd.Usd is still going sideways between 0.8137-0.8154 (buy zone) and 0.8225-0.8250 (sell zone), nothing really special here, great for consolidation trading. Usd.Cad is also showing signs of sideways movement; this pair is currently going between 0.9883 and 1.0029.

Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

Aud.Jpy had a nice bullish bounce near the upwards trend line and is currently pushing up against resistance levels roughly around 84.70. IF this pair manages to break through resistance the bulls will be after 87.59.  If it fails to take out resistance expect further moves south. Nzd.Jpy also experienced a bullish momentum as soon as it made contact with that upwards trend line off the daily. The bulls seem to have their head above resistance levels at the moment and are currently after 68.33, keep in mind there is still a possibility for this pair to sink below resistance and head further south. Cad.Jpy broke through the downwards trend line but still has strong resistance levels around 82.85 to take out before I see this pair go further north. If the bears take over this pair expect further moves south towards the upward trend line. 

European countries Vs. Jpy

Gbp.Jpy is definitely the leader of this trio and the bulls had an aggressive move last week and managed to bounce back above the upwards trend line. I anticipate the bulls to continue pushing this pair further north with a target of 133.49 and 135.14.   I am a bit concerned with Eur.Jpy and Chf.Jpy, unlike Gbp.jpy, these two pairs did manage to make new lows  about two weeks ago and both broke through the downwards trend line. For these reasons, I am slightly pessimistic on these two pairs and don’t think they will go very far north. For Eur.jpy strong resistance can be found around 108.67 and 110.01 and for Chf.Jpy around 90.27 and 91.21, if these levels of resistance hold, there will be a good chance of a trend reversal. If resistance doesn’t hold, look for further moves north.

Eur.Usd and Usd.Chf

Not much to say about these pairs, both are going sideways at the moment. Eur.Usd is currently trading between 1.3028 & 1.3290. Usd.Chf is trading between 0.9090 and 0.9263. Eur.Usd is near resistance levels and Usd.Chf near support, so unless we see a break out, Eur.Usd will mostly likely decline towards support and Usd.Chf shall rally towards resistance. Keep in mind the fundamentals that are coming out this week that can impact these pairs

Gbp.Usd

The cable is back on the move again going further north. This pair experienced a nice bounce of the upwards trend line last week. At the moment the bulls are after the fib target of 1.6358. Keep in mind the cable is releasing strong fundamentals this week that can affect the bullish momentum.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Forex pairs to observe-4.18.2012--Charts



Forex pairs to observe-4.18.2012

Commodity dollars Vs. Usd

Aud.Usd is currently sitting just above strong support levels around 1.0338 area, trying to move further north. If the bulls do indeed take charge, they will be after 1.0467 and 1.0524. Keep in mind there is strong resistance around 1.0430. Nzd.Usd failed to stay above resistance levels not too long ago and the bears managed to bring it back towards the bottom of the channel. The channel lies between 0.8125-0.8150 (Buy Zone) and 0.8225-0.8250 (Sell zone). If support holds, the bulls will be after the top of the channel. If support doesn’t hold, look for further moves south. Usd.Cad is not the prettiest pair to trade at the moment, a lot of aggressive moves up followed by aggressive moves down, so proceed with extra caution trading this pair. This pair is stuck roughly between 0.9883 and 1.0029 with addition support/resistance around 0.9923. At the moment Usd.Cad is sitting between 0.9883 (support) and 0.9923 (resistance) and if the bulls take over, they’ll attempt to push it back above resistance with a target towards the top of the channel. If support doesn’t hold, the bears will be after 0.9859 & 0.9841.