Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Aud.Usd reached target 77 pips captured
Nzd.Usd was closed with +71 pips captured
Gbp.Usd was closed with +101 pips captured
Eur.Aud was reached target with 63 pips captured
Aud.Chf was closed with 54 pips captured
Total of 344 pips captured
Forex pairs to observe
The retracements are over on most pairs and so there are plenty of opportunities across the board. With so many opportunities out there I decided to give a quick summary on the pair’s I’m looking to buy and sell instead of a detail set up of a couple pairs. The market favours the commodity dollars against the Jpy and USD. So ill be looking for long opportunities on Aud.Jpy, Cad.Jpy, Nzd.Jpy, Aud.Usd, Nzd.Usd and short on Usd.Cad. Furthermore, upon a closer inspection we observe that the European countries are gaining strength against the dollar and the yen and are slowly gaining momentum. Having that said, I’ll be looking to go long on Eur.Jpy, Chf.Jpy, Gbp.Jpy, Gbp.Usd, Eur.Usd and short on Usd.Chf. And last but not least the European countries against the commodity dollars are losing strength so ill be looking to go short on Eur.Aud, Eur.Cad and Eur.Nzd. Some of my favourite exotic currencies show that: AUD is gaining strength Vs the Cad and Chf, so long opportunities on Aud.Cad and Aud.Chf. I’ll be adding a chart from each category for a closer inspection.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Forex pairs to observe
Most pairs are currently retracing and we should see allot of opportunities coming up in the next couple days. The pairs i am currently focusing on are....
Aud.Cad & Aud.Usd
Looks like Aud.Cad finished its retracement on the daily and is ready to continue further north. On the 1H chart we can see this pair currently retracing towards support levels around 1.0700 area. If support holds I will be looking to go long on this pair with a fib target of 1.0788. Aud.Usd broke out of the flag and is ready to rally above it. I’m looking for the bulls to take out the 1.0784 area for the confirmation of the break out. If the bulls succeed ill be looking to go long. If they don’t succeed this pair might u-turn back into the channel.
Eur.Usd and Gbp.Usd
Eur.Usd is about to finish its retracement and continue its rally north. Very simple set up, a bullish formation + counter trend line break might justify a long entry on this pair. Gbp.Usd is also currently finishing up its retracement and is ready to u-turn towards the north. This pair does have the ability to drop a bit lower to strong support levels around 1.5774. The bulls will be after 1.5927 with a fib target of the sub-swing at 1.6053.
This pair had a fantastic move north over the last couple days and is currently retracing on the higher time frames. At the moment it is heading towards support levels around 79.50-79.90 and if support holds I will be looking for long opportunities. If support doesn’t hold this pair will gravitate towards its outer trendline and if the bulls don’t take charge at that point, ill stop looking for long opportunities.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Commodity dollars Vs. USD
Aud.Usd, Nzd.Usd and Usd.Cad continued to go sideways last week. Aud.Usd is going sideways in a flag on the daily as it slowly makes lower lows. This week look for more sideways movement with a potential to come down to S1 at around 1.0526 and if the bears are really aggressive towards S2 around 1.0378 area. On the upside (the more likely scenario) if the bulls take over and break towards the north they will be after the highs around 1.1070’s area. Similar picture emerges with Nzd.Usd, this pair is still stuck in about a 150 pip channel with R1 around 0.8575 and S1 around 0.8111. Usd.Cad is no different and is currently going roughly between 0.9924 and 1.0030. If the bears take over control they’ll be after 0.9782 with a fib target of the main swing at 0.9686 area.
Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy
Aud.Jpy, Nzd.Jpy and Cad.Jpy had another week with a nice bullish momentum. Aud.Jpy completed its fib target and is currently on its second bull swing. This pair might retrace a bit before continuing further north. The bulls will be after the highs around 0.8779 and 90.06. Do proceed with caution this particular area has shown to be strong resistance in the past. The fib target is far away at 95.31. Nzd.Jpy also completed its fib swing and is ready to retrace at the moment. I don’t expect big retracements on these pairs judging how they have moved so far. Never the less, the bulls in Nzd.jpy will be after the highs around 68.94 and 69.81. These areas have also proven to be strong resistance points in the past so do proceed with caution. The current fib target is at 72.10. Cad.Jpy is currently after its fib target around 82.57. This area is also important for the bulls because of an important high that resides there. Once the bulls score that point the next important high will be around 85.10. Do keep in mind those strong resistance levels in Aud.Jpy and Nzd.Jpy can cause these pairs to u-turn and not reach their fib targets.
European countries Vs. Jpy
Eur.Jpy, Chf.Jpy and Gbp.Jpy continued rallying against the yen last week with really aggressive moves on Friday. Eur.Jpy reached its fib target and is currently on its second swing. The bulls will be after 111.56, 114.17 with a fib target of 114.93. Chf.Jpy closed the day on Friday with almost a perfect marubozu candle on the daily—more rallying on this pair to come. The fib target on this pair is at 93.86 Gbp.Jpy rallied 3 times its daily range on Friday and there was no stopping the over kill of the Yen by Gbp. The bulls will be after 130.81 with a fib target of 131.34.
Eur.Usd and Usd.Chf
Eur.Usd managed to escape the bears last week and continued its move north. At the moment it’s pushing against resistance levels but nothing this pair can’t handle. The current swing is still intact with a target of 1.3613. Usd.Chf continued its move south last week and I believe this trend will continue for some time to come. The fib target of the last swing was reached last week and the bears are currently after its new target of 0.8819.
The cable also managed to escape the bears last week and experienced an impressive rally on Friday. This pair does have the possibility of forming a channel between 1.5774 and 1.5928 and go sideways for a while until a clear direction is chosen. If the bulls manage to keep control theyll be after 1.6114 with a fib target of 1.6358. Do proceed with caution around 1.6100 area because this area has shown in the past as strong resistance.
I started trading this pair last week as I couldn’t resist the beautiful bullish move this pair has put on the last couple weeks. In fact this pair traded so aggressively towards the north I couldn’t find any nice retracements on the higher timeframes and had to resort to the 15M and 1H charts. The current target for this pair is at 82.82 with small resistance levels around 82.23. The bulls are going aggressively after that high around 85.48 and at this point I do see them reaching that in the next little while.
By: Elias Osman
Friday, February 24, 2012
Eur.Usd and Usd.Chf
I am looking at very simple set ups on these two pairs. Eur.Usd had a nice break out towards the north today and is currently going sideways ready to retrace. I don’t expect a big retracement on this pair, perhaps towards 1.3342 or 1.3324 area before it decides to continue further north. The fib target for the current swing is at 1.3497 so take caution around this area. Usd.Chf took a nice beating by the bears today and is also currently looking to retrace. Resistance levels can be found around 0.9035 and R2 around 0.9084, if resistance hold I will be looking to short this pair.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Aud.chf & Eur.Aud
Aud.Chf has been running with the bears for some time now and just took out a major low as it completed its fib swing. The pair is due for a retracement and does have the potential to come up to 0.9730 area and if resistance holds look for a continuation towards the south. The current fib target is at 0.9592. Proceed with caution as this pair is currently sitting at support levels. Eur.Aud has got a nice uptrend and the bulls just took out a major high not too long ago. This pair is ready to retrace and does have the potential to come down to 1.2417 area where support levels can be found. The current swing has a fib target of 1.2534. Lately this pair is notorious for large retracements on the 4H so proceed with caution if support levels don’t hold.
Eur.Gbp & Gbp.chf
Eur.Gbp finally broke out of the sideways movement and is currently heading north with momentum. This pair is ready to retrace and I will be looking to buy in around 0.8400-0.8425 area, if support holds. Gbp.Chf has been hammered by the bears lately, no surprise; we observe the pound weakening across the board mainly because of the news that came from BOE yesterday. Gbp.Chf is currently sitting on small support levels with the fib target at 1.4227. That area is also really important because if the bears break through that the next low will be about 200 pips away. I anticipate this pair to retrace a bit, perhaps towards 1.4340 area before I considering shorting.
This pair has been going sideways and is currently building energy towards the vortex in what appears to be a triangle on the 4H. The set up is quite simple I will be looking for a break out as my entry point. I anticipate this pair to break towards the south but anything can happen at this point. Do proceed with caution the Euro and USD has fundamentals coming out tomorrow so it will be interesting to see what happens.