Monday, May 7, 2012

Week 19--Fx Analysis-

Commodity dollars Vs. Usd

The commodity dollars had a bearish trading week against most pairs last week. The fundamental announcements significantly impacted the commodity dollars towards the bearish side, especially against the USD.  Aud.Usd broke through major support levels last week and the bears are currently after the fib target of 0.9979, the bears are clearly in control of this pair. Nzd.Usd finally managed to break out of the channel towards the south and the bears are currently after the fib target of 0.7870, this also an area where support levels can be found. Usd.Cad decided to come back into the channel and is working its way up towards the top which is around 1.0029. If resistance levels around 1.0029 holds, expect a u-turn towards the bottom of the channel (0.9928).  Overall I am bearish on this trio.

Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

Similar to their cousins above this trio had the bears firmly in control last week. Aud.Jpy managed to break through the upwards trend line and tanked shortly after. The bears are currently after their fib target of 79.38.  Nzd.Jpy also broke through support levels and experienced a heavy sell off. Not much to say here, other than the fact that the bears managed to reach their target of 63.75, expect further moves towards the south to come. Cad.Jpy is no different in comparison with its counterparts and this pair is also running with the bears. The bears did manage to break through the inner trend line and crucial support levels. At the moment the bears are after 78.93 with a fib target of 77.27. Over all I am bearish on this trio. 

European countries Vs. Jpy

Gbp.Jpy did indeed break towards the south last week and the bears are still after 127.04. This level is fairly strong support so it’s quite possible to see this pair go sideways between 127.04 and 130.06. If the bears manage to break through support they’ll be after 125.40 with a fib target of 123.10. Chf.Jpy and Eur.Jpy are still pursuing their targets of 85.68, 83.83 & 102.80 and 100.42.  Over all, I am bearish on this trio as well. 

Eur.Usd & Usd.Chf

Both pairs continued the week trading sideways in their channels. Eur.Usd is currently trying to break out of the channel towards the south, if the bears do succeed in breaking through, they’ll be after 1.2876 and 1.2624. if not, expect a u-turn towards the top of the channel. Usd.Chf is currently pushing up against resistance levels around 0.9263. If the bulls do manage to break through that level they’ll be after 0.9940 and 0.9572. If the bulls fail to break through resistance, expect a u-turn towards the bottom of the channel.    


The cable is currently retracing and will probably find support between 1.5988-1.6057. If support holds, the bulls will continue their journey north towards the fib target of 1.6358. Do proceed with caution if support levels don’t hold and this pair breaks its trend line. 


The Yen is gaining strength across the board against different currencies and the dollar is no exception. This pair has a gorgeous bear crown on the daily and the bears are currently after 79.26 and 77.88. Do proceed with caution if the downwards trend line is taken out. 

Looking at the pairs observed thus far we see that the market is favoring the USD & JPY against the other currencies, with JPY taking the number 1 place. USD & GBP take the second and third place with the Euro and commodity dollars being the losers. This week look to buy the top 3 contenders against the losers.

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