Monday, April 30, 2012

Week 18-Fx-Analysis


Commodity dollars vs. Usd

The bulls managed to take out 1.0467 last week with an impressive bullish candle on the daily. Although support levels where violated last week, the bears failed to make a new low and the bulls regained control quickly. I anticipate this pair to continue going further north, but do keep in mind the fundamentals this week that can impact this pair either way. The bulls are currently after 1.0557. Nzd.Usd continued going sideways last week with a aggressive finish by the bulls near the top of the channel. It looks like this pair picked up some bullish momentum, so I anticipate this pair to attempt another break out towards the north. If the bulls fail, expect further sideways movement. Usd.Cad broke out of the sideways channel towards the south last week. The bears managed to take out important levels of support and are currently after 0.9782 and 9722.  Over all, I anticipate the commodities to gain strength against the Dollar over the next little while. 

Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

Aud.Jpy failed to take out the resistance around 84.68 last week and is still pushing up against it. At the moment the bears and the bulls are fighting it out over control and this pair is stuck between support, roughly around 82.63 and resistance around 84.68. If the bulls take over control they'll be after 87.59, & if the bears take over control they’ll be after 80.52. The fact that the bulls failed to take out resistance levels last week is somewhat worrisome for the bullish momentum, for this reason I’m slightly bearish on this pair. Nzd.Jpy also failed to take out resistance levels and managed to break through the upwards trend line from the daily—Good news for the bears.  This pair is trading between 65.63 and 66.57, if break out occurs towards the south the bears will be after 64.66. If the break out occurs towards the north the bulls will be after 68.46. Cad.Jpy is the strongest of the trio and this pair managed to reach resistance levels around 82.82....but failed to break through and is currently u-turning. This pair has a beautiful bearish crown on the daily and if the bears wish to complete it, they will have to break through the upwards trend line and break support levels around 80.33. There is also a possibility of this pair bouncing of the upwards trend line and retest resistance around 82.82. Important levels for the bears are 78.85 and 77.17.  Over-all I’m slightly bearish on the commodity dollars against the yen. 

European countries Vs. Jpy

Gbp.Jpy failed to stay above the upwards trend line and proceeded to slowly slip back below it last week. This pair is currently stuck roughly between 130.19 and 131.76. The bears are putting pressure on this pair and if they succeed to break through support they’ll be after 127.04 and 126.51. If the bulls by some act of magic do take control of this pair they’ll be after 133.46. Eur.Jpy and Chf. Jpy, both failed to take out important resistance levels last week and these two are currently u-turning towards the south.  The bears for Chf.Jpy are after 85.68 with a fib target of 83.83 and for Eur.Jpy they are after 102.80 with a fib target of 100.42.  Over all this trio is pointing towards the bearish side and I anticipate the yen to strengthen further. 

Eur.Usd & Usd.Chf

There is nothing really special going on with these two, both pairs continue trading sideways in their channels.  Eur.Usd is currently on top of the channel and if the bulls manage to break through they’ll be after  1.3375 and 1.3487, if not expect a u-turn towards the bottom of the channel. Similar but in the opposite manner, Usd.Chf is sitting on support levels trying to break through. If the bears manage to break through they will be after 0.9003 and 8934, if not expect a u-turn towards the top of the channel. 

Gbp.USd
The cable continued going north last week as expected. The bulls are still after their fib target of 1.6354.

Usd.Jpy
The Yen is gaining strength across the board against different currencies and the dollar is no exception. This pair has a gorgeous bear crown on the daily and the bears are currently after 79.26 and 77.88. Looks like the bullish momentum is over on this pair...

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