Monday, April 23, 2012

Week 17 Fx Analysis

Commodity dollars Vs. Usd

Aud.Usd broke the downwards trend line and is bouncing between support and resistance which are located roughly around 1.0335 and 1.0430. If the bulls take control of this pair they’ll attempt another run at taking that high out around 1.0467. If the bears decide to take over they will be after 1.0223. But for now  I expect further sideways movement. Nzd.Usd is still going sideways between 0.8137-0.8154 (buy zone) and 0.8225-0.8250 (sell zone), nothing really special here, great for consolidation trading. Usd.Cad is also showing signs of sideways movement; this pair is currently going between 0.9883 and 1.0029.

Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

Aud.Jpy had a nice bullish bounce near the upwards trend line and is currently pushing up against resistance levels roughly around 84.70. IF this pair manages to break through resistance the bulls will be after 87.59.  If it fails to take out resistance expect further moves south. Nzd.Jpy also experienced a bullish momentum as soon as it made contact with that upwards trend line off the daily. The bulls seem to have their head above resistance levels at the moment and are currently after 68.33, keep in mind there is still a possibility for this pair to sink below resistance and head further south. Cad.Jpy broke through the downwards trend line but still has strong resistance levels around 82.85 to take out before I see this pair go further north. If the bears take over this pair expect further moves south towards the upward trend line. 

European countries Vs. Jpy

Gbp.Jpy is definitely the leader of this trio and the bulls had an aggressive move last week and managed to bounce back above the upwards trend line. I anticipate the bulls to continue pushing this pair further north with a target of 133.49 and 135.14.   I am a bit concerned with Eur.Jpy and Chf.Jpy, unlike Gbp.jpy, these two pairs did manage to make new lows  about two weeks ago and both broke through the downwards trend line. For these reasons, I am slightly pessimistic on these two pairs and don’t think they will go very far north. For Eur.jpy strong resistance can be found around 108.67 and 110.01 and for Chf.Jpy around 90.27 and 91.21, if these levels of resistance hold, there will be a good chance of a trend reversal. If resistance doesn’t hold, look for further moves north.

Eur.Usd and Usd.Chf

Not much to say about these pairs, both are going sideways at the moment. Eur.Usd is currently trading between 1.3028 & 1.3290. Usd.Chf is trading between 0.9090 and 0.9263. Eur.Usd is near resistance levels and Usd.Chf near support, so unless we see a break out, Eur.Usd will mostly likely decline towards support and Usd.Chf shall rally towards resistance. Keep in mind the fundamentals that are coming out this week that can impact these pairs


The cable is back on the move again going further north. This pair experienced a nice bounce of the upwards trend line last week. At the moment the bulls are after the fib target of 1.6358. Keep in mind the cable is releasing strong fundamentals this week that can affect the bullish momentum.

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