Monday, April 9, 2012

Week 15 Fx-Analysis

Commodity dollars Vs. Usd

Aud.Usd continued its decline against the dollar last week, respecting the downwards trendline on the daily. The bears managed to complete their fib swing and are currently on their second swing with a fib target of 0.9984....about 350 pips away. As long as that downward trendline holds and the bulls fail to take out 1.0467, I see this trend continue in the downwards direction. Nzd.Usd is still going sideways at the moment with strong resistance levels between 0.8250-0.8300 (no buy zone) and strong support between 0.8050-0.8100 (no sell zone). I see this pair continue to bounce off these areas until a direction is chosen. A bearish break out will send this pair towards 0.7850 area and a bullish break out (less likely) towards 0.8411. Usd.Cad is still in a coma suffering from bad dreams occasionally. This is reflected in the pair’s small average daily range of about 66 pips and occasional spurts of ups and downs. This pair is still stuck roughly between 0.9930 and 1.0030. Not much action here. Over-all I favor the dollar against the Aud at this point in time, with the other two commodities roughly being at equal strengths with the USD taking turns being in charge.

Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

Aud.Jpy is the weakest member of this trio and is slowly gravitating towards the upwards trendline off the daily. This area will be an important crossroad for this pair; it will decide which way it wants to go. There are some support levels around 82.86 and 81.50 area. If the bulls take control they will attempt to push this pair above 84.68 and towards resistance areas around 87.60. Nzd.Jpy is holding up a bit better against the yen and found support around 66.50 area. I see more sideways movement on this pair between 66.57 and 68.33 until support or resistance is broken. Also, take caution around the upwards trendline. Cad.Jpy is currently under downward pressure by the bears and is hovering around 82.00 area. If this area holds the bulls will attempt to break the counter trendline and head towards 85.00. If the bears remain in control look for further moves south towards my inner trendline.

European countries Vs. Jpy

The trio failed to find support around the upwards trendline and broke through it last week. Eur.Jpy is currently heading towards the backside of the trendline with strong resistance around 108.50. the next area of resistance can be found around 91.28. If these levels hold, look for a continuation towards the south. Similar story with Chf.Jpy, the bulls are currently heading towards strong resistance around 90.22 and 91.28. If these levels of resistance hold, I expect further move south. Gbp.Jpy is holding up a bit better in comparison with the other two, but still failed to stay above support and the upwards trendline. Hence I anticipate the yen strengthening further against the Gbp with resistance levels around 130.00 and 131.72.

Eur.Usd & Usd.Chf

These two pairs decided to go back into their channels. Eur.Usd failed to take out the high around 1.3487 last week and jumped right back into the channel with the bears driving it towards the bottom around 1.3023. I see this pair continue trading between 1.3023 and 1.3290 untill a direction is chosen. The reverse holds true for Usd.Chf, The bears failed to take out the low around 0.8934 last week and consequentially jumped back into the channel with the bulls pushing it towards the top. Similar as above, I expect more sideways movement between 0.9086 and 0.9263 until a direction is chosen.


The cable broke through major support last week but is still trading above it’s upwards trendline. Im currently slightly bearish on this pair and I anticipate the bulls to push this pair towards 1.6000 area. I anticipate this area of resistance to hold and continue further down. Do proceed with caution around the trendline, if the bears manage to break through it they will be going towards support levels around 1.5646.

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