Monday, April 2, 2012

Week 14 Fx-Analysis

Commodity dollars Vs. Usd

Aud.Usd continued its decline against the dollar last week, bouncing of the downward trendline very nicely. The bears are currently after the fib target of 1.0290 which they missed by about 15 pips last week and most likely will attempt another run at it this week. If the bulls do decide to take control of this pair they will have to break the downwards trendline and take out 1.0557 before I even consider any reversals taking place. Nzd.Usd is going sideways at the moment with strong resistance levels between 0.8250-0.8300 (no buy zone) and strong support between 0.8050-0.8100 (no sell zone). I see this pair continue to bounce off these areas until a direction is chosen. A bearish break out will send this pair towards 0.7850 area and a bullish break out (Not very likely) towards 0.8411. Usd.Cad is currently in a coma suffering from bad dreams occasionally. This is reflected in the pair’s small average daily range of about 66 pips and occasional spurts of ups and downs. This pair is still stuck roughly between 0.9930 and 1.0030. Not much action here. Over-all I am favoring the dollar against the commodities at this point in time. Also keep in mind Aud and Usd are releasing important fundamentals this week that can push these pairs one way or another.

Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

Resistance levels held last week for these pairs and they u-turned at given levels with Aud.Jpy and Cad.Jpy making new lows. Aud.Jpy did find support around 84.60 area and decided to teleport about 90 pips north over the weekend closer to resistance levels around 87.50. If the bulls do take out the resistance levels they will be after 89.57. Cad.Jpy also thought it was a good idea to teleport north over weekend after finding support around 81.84. If the bulls take charge of the pair they will be after 84.12 and 84.95. If the bears take control of this pair they will be after 81.84 and 80.36. Nzd.Jpy has got strong resistance around 68.33 area and strong support around 66.57 and is currently going between those two levels. If it does decide to break out of those levels the bears will be after 65.30 and the bulls after 69.12. I am slightly bearish on these pairs until proven otherwise.

European countries Vs. Jpy

Interesting moves on these pairs last week, this trio failed to make new high’s decided to u-turned south where they also failed to make new lows—which signals indecision. Having that said, signs are pointing towards the upside. Chf.Jpy just managed to take out the previous high while the other two are lingering near resistance levels threatening to do the same. Thus I anticipate the bulls to remain in charge on these pairs and drive them further north this week towards their fib targets. Keep in mind there is a slight possibility for the bears to push these pairs towards the upward trendline.

Eur.Usd & Usd.Chf

The game of support and resistance for these two pairs came to a halt last week with a break in favor of the Eur and Chf. Eur.Usd is currently heading towards the highs around 1.3487 but it’s important to keep in mind that this pair still has a chance of going back into the channel, especially with the announcements coming out this week. So please proceed with caution if this pair breaks the trendline and sinks below 1.3285 area. Usd.Chf is currently heading towards 0.8934 with the bears after the lows in that area. Just like its counterpart above, this pair also has a chance of going back into the channel, so proceed with caution if this pairs breaks its trendline and moves above 0.9087 area. Another thing worth noting is that if Eur.Usd takes out the 1.3487 level, than we can expect the bullish trend to continue towards its fib target of 1.4016 (given the euro zone stabilizes further). Likewise if Usd.Chf takes out 0.8934, than we can anticipate this pair to free fall towards its fib target of 0.8551.

Gbp.Usd

The cable managed to break out of the channel last week and managed make new high — good news for the bulls. The bulls are currently after the fib target of 1.6357 with some resistance levels expected around 1.6100. Do keep in mind the USD fundamentals this week.

Gold & Silver

Gold had a nice bullish move in the beginning of the week followed by a 4 day retracement. It seems like the retracement is coming to a halt and this metal wants to continue further north. The bulls will be after the fib target 1715 on my sub-swing. Silver is looking a bit better because the bulls took out the major highs at the end of Feb. forming a beautiful crown. On the downside the bulls failed to take the downwards trendline on the daily which is my main concern for this metal. There is also a nice bull crown on the lower time frames with fib target of 33.66 with a possibility of reaching 34.4287, the latter is also where we can find the downwards trendline so take caution here. Im slightly bullish on the metals at this point but keep in mind the USD announcements can send these metals south.

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