Monday, March 26, 2012

Week 13 Fx-Analysis

Commodity dollars Vs. Usd

Aud.Usd failed to take out 1.0670 last week and continued going further south making new lows. The bears are currently pushing this pair towards support around 1.0326 with a fib target of 1.0292. If the bulls do take charge of this pair they will have to break through the downwards trend line and take out 1.0640 level before I consider this trend reversing. Nzd.Usd is holding up a bit better compared to its counterpart above. This pair has strong resistance levels between 0.8250-0.8300 (no buy zone) and strong support between 0.8050-0.8100 (no sell zone). So it is quite possible to see this pair bounce between these areas before deciding which direction it wants to go. Also keep in mind the downward trend line on the daily. Usd.Cad failed to make a new low, broke through the downwards trendline and made a new high last week which is why I am slightly bullish on this pair. Another thing to note is the fact that it decided to play the game of support and resistance again when it rallied back into the channel between 0.9930 and 1.0030. Strong levels of support and resistance lie here so be cautious around those areas.

Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

This trio experienced a heavy sell of last week wich seriously challenged the bullish momentum we have been seeing on these pairs. Aud.Jpy broke through support levels around 86.00 and is currently heading towards resistance around 87.60; if this resistance holds I expect it to drop further towards support levels around 8400. If the resistance around 87.60 doesn’t hold, than the bulls will be after 88.60, 89.57 and 90.02, the last two is also where really strong resistance can be found. Nzd.Jpy shows a similar picture with the pair currently trying to take out 68.00 level. If this level of resistance is not taken out I anticipate a further move south with the bears after 66.53 and 65.29. If resistance doesn’t hold the bulls will be after 69.13. Cad.Jpy has a very nice evening star on the daily. The bulls are currently after 83.52 and if that area of resistance holds I anticipate a u-turn and a continuation south with the bears after 80.38. If resistance doesn’t hold the bulls will be after the previous high around 85.00’s area. Over all I am bearish on these pairs until proven otherwise.

European countries Vs. Jpy

This trio also experienced a sell off last week which resulted in evening stars on the daily. Gbp.Jpy is currently going towards resistance levels around 133.66 and if this area holds expect a takeover by the bears. The bears will be after 130.05, 128.23 and 126.54. If the bulls remain in control they will be after 133.46 and 135.14. Eur.Jpy is heading towards 110.13 and if this area of resistance holds expect this pair to dance with the bears which will be after 107.51 and 105.75. On the flip side if the bulls remain in control they will be after 111.60 and 114.16. Chf.Jpy has got its left tip around 91.51 which will be crucial for the bulls to take out if they want to remain in control. If they fail they will be after 89.16 with support around 88.00’s. All together, I anticipate the Yen to rally against the European pairs.

Eur.Usd and Usd.Chf

The name of the game for both pairs is support and resistance. Eur.Usd is bouncing roughly between 1.3030 and 1.3280 areas. At the moment this pair is hugging resistance levels and if they hold this pair will move towards the bottom of the channel. If it decides to break it, the bulls will be after 1.3488. Usd.Chf shows this in reverse. This pair is going roughly between 0.9090 and 0.9263 and is hugging support levels at the moment. If support holds expect a rally towards the top of the channel. If support fails the bears will be after 0.8922.


The cable tried to break through the top of the channel all of last week with no luck thus far. If the resistance remains firm it will only be a matter of time before the bears knock this pair towards the bottom of the channel. If resistance fails, the bulls will be after 1.5991.

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