Monday, March 19, 2012

Week 12 Fx-Analysis

Commodity dollars Vs. Usd

The retracement seemed to come to a halt last week in these pairs. Aud.Usd reached S1 last week at around 1.0428 and jumped right back up shortly after. The bulls are currently after 1.0670, 1.0755 and 1.0856. Nzd.Usd took out the low around 0.8100 level and rallied back towards the back of the channel. At the moment this pair is pushing up against resistance level. I anticipate this pair break through resistance and work its way up towards the top of the channel around 0.8411. The bulls will also be after the high around 0.8472. Usd.Cad was hugging resistance levels around 0.9926 all of last week and just now decided to continue its move further south. The bears are currently after 0.9840, 0.9779 and 0.9722.

Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

There was a sense of nervousness going on with these pairs last week, especially with Aud.Jpy and Nzd.Jpy. The bulls did end up taking control of these pairs and confirmed the take over when these pairs made new highs. Aud.Jpy is currently after 0.8958 and 90.01, these levels are really import for these pairs to take out because it will signal a beginning of a bullish long term trend. Nzd.Jpy proceeded to take out 68.88 and is currently after 69.71. Similar story with this pair, those levels are really important for the bulls as it will also signal a bigger bull trend starting on the higher time frames. Cad.Jpy is still leading this trio, not much surprise here with the current oil prices. At the moment this pair is after 85.29, this is also not too far away from its fib target at 85.42. The next level the bulls will be after will be the area around 87.18.

European countries Vs. Jpy

This trio also showed signs of nervousness and indecision two weeks ago and the bulls took control of these pairs last week. Not much to say about these pairs, they are clearly making higher highs and higher lows. Gbp.Jpy is currently after 135.11 and 137.03. Eur.Jpy is currently after 111.56 and 114.22. Chf.Jpy is after 94.29 and 99.38.

Eur.Usd & Usd.Chf

Eur.Usd came very close but failed to take out the low around 1.2975 last week. Instead this pair found support around 1.3029 and rallied it north from there towards the end of last week. The bulls broke through resistance levels around 1.3200 with momentum and are currently after 1.3290 and 1.3484. Usd.Chf did manage to take out 1.3300 level and missed 1.3340 by a couple pips last week. This pair failed to stay above the resistance levels around 0.9228 and broke through the upwards trendline. The bears took back the control in this pair and are currently after 0.9069 and 0.8992.


The support levels for the cable stood firmly last week and the pair rallied towards the top of the channel around 1.5900. At the moment this pair is pushing up against resistance levels and if the bulls remain in the control they will be after 1.5995 1.6114 with a fib target of 1.6358. If resistance levels don’t hold I expect this pair to move back down towards the bottom of the channel around 1.5650.

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