Monday, March 5, 2012

Week 10 Fx-Analysis

It is going to be an exciting week with so many fundamentals coming out. This also means you should be extra careful trading this week.

Commodity dollars Vs. Usd

Aud.Usd was trying to break out of the flag last week with little luck thus far. The pair did manage to make a new high and is currently back into the channel. I do sense the bulls taking control over this pair slowly so we can expect a rally north sometime soon, especially if the fundamentals are positive. It will be critical for the bulls to take out the high at around 1.0856 which will signal the end of this retracement. After that point the bulls will be after 1.1075. If the bears take charge expect a further move towards the bottom of the channel. Nzd.Usd made a new high followed by an aggressive attack by the bears which brought it back into the channel. At the moment this pair is still trading between 0.8250 and 0.8400. Usd.Cad broke out of the channel last week and took out an important low. The bears are currently after 0.9779 and 0.9722 but before they reach these levels it is very much possible to see this pair pushed back into the channel.

Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

There is not much to say about these pairs all 3 continued their strong uptrend last week. Aud.Jpy managed to take out the previous high and is currently retracing. The bulls are still after that 90.06 area. On the other side Nzd.Jpy is also running with the bulls and they are after 68.92 and 69.82 area. Cad.Jpy experienced an outstanding rally last week and I sense this trend to continue for some time to come. The bulls are currently after the 85.09 area.

European countries Vs Jpy

Gbp.Jpy took the league in this trio and continued its move north. The bulls are still after the 130.81 area with a fib target of 131.28. Chf.Jpy and Eur.Jpy decided to flatline almost all of last week with very little movement. Once these pairs decide to come back to live the bulls in Eur.Jpy & Chf.Jpy will be after 111.58 and 93.86 area.

Eur.Usd & Usd.Chf

Eur.Usd was pushing against resistance levels at the beginning of the week and the bulls failed to break through and had a nice run with the bears. I do sense a further move towards the south to come this week with the bears trying to break through the upwards trendline and If they succeed they will be after 1.2975 area. If the bulls regain control the fib target of the current swing is at 1.3611. Usd.Chf also experienced a heavy retracement last week which challenges the bearish momentum. The current fib target is still at 0.8817 but the bulls will most likely retrace further. At the moment this pair is pushing up against resistance levels and if this level breaks the bulls will be after the 0.9298 area.

Gbp.Usd

The cable did manage to make a new high last week but was followed by a strong pull back. I sense more bearish moves on the way. The pair is currently gravitating towards the upwards trendline and if the bears break through it expect a further move down. S1 will be around 1. 5663 and if this area doesn’t hold this pair will be freefall for about 300 pips.

Usd.Jpy

Usd.Jpy continued its rally north last week as expected and will most probably continue for some time to come. The bulls are currently after 82.18 and 82.82.

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