Monday, February 27, 2012

Week 9 Fx-Analysis

Commodity dollars Vs. USD

Aud.Usd, Nzd.Usd and Usd.Cad continued to go sideways last week. Aud.Usd is going sideways in a flag on the daily as it slowly makes lower lows. This week look for more sideways movement with a potential to come down to S1 at around 1.0526 and if the bears are really aggressive towards S2 around 1.0378 area. On the upside (the more likely scenario) if the bulls take over and break towards the north they will be after the highs around 1.1070’s area. Similar picture emerges with Nzd.Usd, this pair is still stuck in about a 150 pip channel with R1 around 0.8575 and S1 around 0.8111. Usd.Cad is no different and is currently going roughly between 0.9924 and 1.0030. If the bears take over control they’ll be after 0.9782 with a fib target of the main swing at 0.9686 area.

Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy

Aud.Jpy, Nzd.Jpy and Cad.Jpy had another week with a nice bullish momentum. Aud.Jpy completed its fib target and is currently on its second bull swing. This pair might retrace a bit before continuing further north. The bulls will be after the highs around 0.8779 and 90.06. Do proceed with caution this particular area has shown to be strong resistance in the past. The fib target is far away at 95.31. Nzd.Jpy also completed its fib swing and is ready to retrace at the moment. I don’t expect big retracements on these pairs judging how they have moved so far. Never the less, the bulls in Nzd.jpy will be after the highs around 68.94 and 69.81. These areas have also proven to be strong resistance points in the past so do proceed with caution. The current fib target is at 72.10. Cad.Jpy is currently after its fib target around 82.57. This area is also important for the bulls because of an important high that resides there. Once the bulls score that point the next important high will be around 85.10. Do keep in mind those strong resistance levels in Aud.Jpy and Nzd.Jpy can cause these pairs to u-turn and not reach their fib targets.

European countries Vs. Jpy

Eur.Jpy, Chf.Jpy and Gbp.Jpy continued rallying against the yen last week with really aggressive moves on Friday. Eur.Jpy reached its fib target and is currently on its second swing. The bulls will be after 111.56, 114.17 with a fib target of 114.93. Chf.Jpy closed the day on Friday with almost a perfect marubozu candle on the daily—more rallying on this pair to come. The fib target on this pair is at 93.86 Gbp.Jpy rallied 3 times its daily range on Friday and there was no stopping the over kill of the Yen by Gbp. The bulls will be after 130.81 with a fib target of 131.34.

Eur.Usd and Usd.Chf

Eur.Usd managed to escape the bears last week and continued its move north. At the moment it’s pushing against resistance levels but nothing this pair can’t handle. The current swing is still intact with a target of 1.3613. Usd.Chf continued its move south last week and I believe this trend will continue for some time to come. The fib target of the last swing was reached last week and the bears are currently after its new target of 0.8819.

Gbp.Usd

The cable also managed to escape the bears last week and experienced an impressive rally on Friday. This pair does have the possibility of forming a channel between 1.5774 and 1.5928 and go sideways for a while until a clear direction is chosen. If the bulls manage to keep control theyll be after 1.6114 with a fib target of 1.6358. Do proceed with caution around 1.6100 area because this area has shown in the past as strong resistance.

Usd.Jpy

I started trading this pair last week as I couldn’t resist the beautiful bullish move this pair has put on the last couple weeks. In fact this pair traded so aggressively towards the north I couldn’t find any nice retracements on the higher timeframes and had to resort to the 15M and 1H charts. The current target for this pair is at 82.82 with small resistance levels around 82.23. The bulls are going aggressively after that high around 85.48 and at this point I do see them reaching that in the next little while.

By: Elias Osman
elias@akfinancials.net

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