Euro vs. Commodity dollars
Eur.aud and Eur.Nzd broke through major support levels today. Eur.Aud broke through the upwards trendline and is currently after the low at 1.2292 area. I anticipate this pair rally back up to retest the back of the trendline around 1.2350’s and can rally as high as 1.2378. I dont see the bulls taking control of this pair and rallying it up above support levels, but never the less, if they break through with strong moment be careful to short this pair. Overall ill be looking for shorts here. Eur.Nzd was stuck in a side ways channel for about 2 weeks and finally decided to go south with the bears. This pair has the potential to rally towards 1.5920 area to touch the back side of the channel, and if resistance hold, this pair will u-turn south to continue the downtrend. Eur.cad has been holding up better than its counterparts. With lower than expected Gdp figures its no surprise to see a weak Canadian dollar. This pair is currently holding up at support levels around 1.3108. there is a slim chance for support to hold and this pair to rally towards 1.3185, if this pair fails to break through these resistance level I will be looking to short.
Gbp.Jpy and Nzd.Jpy
Both pairs found support levels and are currently heading north. Gbp.Jpy formed a bull crown on the hour and is racing towards its fib target of 121.21. Nzd.Jpy shows a very similar story, support held on the higher time frames and is currently on its way up. The fib target for this pair 63.88, proceed with caution after this level I anticipate another retracement at that point. I’ll be looking for long opportunities on these pairs only if observing a strong bullish move, if it fails to rally, ill be looking for short opportunities on these pairs. Do proceed with caution on these pairs, the yen has strengthen significantly over the last couple days.
This pair decided to break through support, fails to take out the previous high and broke through the trend line, in other words it decided to form a bear crown and completed its fib swing downwards. It is currently heading towards the back side of the trend line and if resistance hold expect the second swing down to complete. The fib target of this pair is at 1.2934; this is also an area where an important low resides, this is probably what the bears will be after. If we zoom out and look at higher time frames we can also see a level of support in this area.
This pair broke through support with momentum and I anticipate this pair to continue going further down. It might retrace 20/50 pips to meet the back side of the trend line and if resistance holds (most probably will) expect further moves down.