Commodity dollars Vs. Jpy
Aud.Jpy, Nzd.Jpy and Cad.Jpy are currently retracing at the moment. Aud.Jpy is heading towards support levels around 83.00 and if support holds expect a continuation towards the north. If support doesn’t hold and this pair takes out the lows around 83.16 plus breaks the inner trend line than this pair has a high probability of forming a bear crown and come down even lower towards 82.70’s. Nzd.Jpy also had an impressive rally today and is currently on its way down towards 64.50’s area for support. Similar set up as Aud.Jpy, look for support to hold and a bullish momentum before considering going long. Cad.Jpy has a small support level around 77.50’s, it is quite possible for this pair to go sideways for a while before going further north. Take caution with the Cad it has fundamentals coming out.
European Countries Vs. Jpy
Chf.Jpy, Gbp.Jpy and Eur.Jpy took out important highs today confirming the bullish momentum will continue for some time to come. Similar to the pairs above, this trio is currently retracing towards support. For Chf.Jpy this is around 84.60-84.90’s area, for Gbp.Jpy support is around 122.00-122.30’s and lastly for Eur.Jpy support is around 102.50-102.75 area. If support hold i will be looking for buying opportunities.
Eur.Usd and Usd.Chf
Both pairs observed a lot of ups and downs today with all the news releasing coming out. Eur.Usd is still sitting at support levels and the bears failed to break it below 1.3230’s and back into the channel. We also observed this pair making higher highs and lower lows which leads me to conclude this pair still has bullish momentum in it. Currently I have a small sub swing with a fib target of 1.3375. At the moment this pair is going sideways so ill be looking for any bullish signals before going long on this pair.
Usd.Chf is sitting at support levels around 0.9100 area. The bears are slowly creeping across the support area and if they decide to break it they will be after the lows around 0.9066 and 0.8950 area. 0.8950 is also where the fib target of that swing is. Be very careful trading these pairs tomorrow, the US has fundamentals coming out.
The bullish momentum in this pair has been seriously challenged today. First the bulls took out important highs a couple days ago around 1.0740’s and now the bulls are pushing against strong resistance levels. Second, the bears decided to take out support and form a nice bear crown on the 4H. This pair is currently pushing up against the inner trend line and if the bulls don’t take back control soon than we can possibly see this pair drop 200/300 pips before finding support. I am currently bearish on this pair and the fib target of the first swing will be 1.0675. We might see a small bounce at that point and then continue further south.
Keep in mind it is possible for the news to swing the pairs all in the other direction, in this case the Yen and the dollar will rally.