Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Close trading signal Gold with Profit

Trading signal Gold closed with profit $3.2

Trading Signal GOLD

Trading Signal Gold
Buy at :1746.80
Stop Loss:$1743.50
Target Profit:1750

Close second Forex TradingSignal USD/CHF with Profit

Close second Forex Trading Signal USD/CHF with Profit at 0.9088. Profit: 38 pips

Second sell usd/chf Forex Trading signal

First Forex trading signal closed with loss 27 pips.
Sell again at 0.9126 with stop loss at 0.9145 and target profit .9070

Forex Trading Singal SELL USD/CHF

Forex Trading Signal
Sell USD/CHF at: 0.9113
Stop loss: 0.9140
Target Profit:0.9070

CLOSE THE EUR/GBP Forex Trading Singal(24 November 2011)

Close the Forex trading Singal  EUR/GBP (24 November 2011) at 0.8578 . PROFIT : 14 PIPS PROFIT

No Trade AUD/USD



No Trade AUD/USD, because the market didnt hit 1.0234

Forex Trading Signal AUD/USD

Forex Trading Signal  AUD/USD

BUY:1.0234
STOP LOSS: 1.0213
TARGET PROFIT: 1.0260

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Forex Trading Signal EUR/GBP

Forex Trading Signal  EUR/GBP


EUR/GBP

SELL : 0.8592

STOP LOSS: 0.8670

1st TARGET PROFIT: 0.8520

2nd TARGET PROFIT :0.8485

Friday, April 8, 2011

Traders Say RBI Likely Intervened in Forex Market

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/traders-say-rbi-likely-intervened-in-forex-market-2011-04-08

COMMENT: ECB - Not a series? - IFR

LONDON Apr 8 (IFR) - There is a lot of focus on the comments from Trichet that this is not the start of a series of rate hikes. For those that might believe this to be true first take a look at what Trichet said during the Q&ampA at the Dec 1 in 2005 "We are not engaging, ex ante, in a series of interest rate increases. And, as I have said, we will continue to monitor closely all developments with regard to risks to price stability". Subsequently the ECB followed this with 125bps hikes during 2006.
We currently are sticking with the view that we will see at least 100bps in the current tightening cycle and look for the next hike to be delivered in July. There is the risk that it can happen in June (and the market is 50/50 between a June or July hike) but without more ECB speak we are not inclined to change our call. The key over the coming weeks will be to keep an eye on money markets to see how the new higher deposit rate floor impacts liquidity parked at the ECB. With excess liquidity currently around 10/15bn there is going to be a very significant impact on EONIA with the market already priced for the o/n rate trading closer to the refi rate.
The financial market impact has already been seen with further upside on EUR/USD as well as a flatter yield curve likely to remain strategic plays at least until the Fed looks to signal its exit. Divyang.Shah@thomsonreuters.com
 
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Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Tuesday 05/04/2001 FX Comments

AUD weaker post surprise trade numbers.


RBA left rates unch as expected and their language consistent with prev. re comment on strength of AUD keeping infl down.

Resumption of coal output taking longer than expected ..being pushed by the AUD bears .

NZD higher. Fin Min – I would be surprised if another cut needed.



FT - Portugal fears again.. Article in the FT highlighting their 10% yields and moody’s catching up with S&P / Fitch by downgrading them this am.

We noted CTA interest to reduce USD shorts on a few axes yday…some retraced by the end of the day ..some didn’t ….USDCAD for eg.


UK PMI services a key for the UK . But we’ll need a number close to 55 to persuade mkt a May rte hike may occur.


Flows

JPY - A small standout of USDJPY selling from Japanese base EURGBP - Real money name has sold EURGBP at 0.8800 lvl Asian FX – Models and Macro have sold USDINR Quant base sell USDIDR









Friday, April 1, 2011

CARRY TRADE

'CARRY TRADE''  is a common theme in conversations this week....re the
USDJPY move and FED speakers..
We've seen CHF weaker this am , albeit on light flow, EURCHF taking out prev
resistance at 1.3040.

Take a quick look at this brief  piece from David Bloom this morning.
Highlights his thoughts on whats going on in this space at mom...

Cheers

Al
THE G7 INTERVENTION HAS HAD UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES.BY LIMITING THE DOWNSIDE
FOR USD-JPY AND CREATING UNLIMITED POTENTIAL UPSIDE. IT HAS ENCOURAGED THE
RETURN OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE...RISKING INSTABILITY RATHER THAN STABILITY
FX Strategy
{http://bit.ly/fzkR8O}

G7 co-ordinated intervention has effectively removed the JPY from the normal
currency landscape.

In the wake of the intervention, volatility in USD-JPY has fallen and should
continue to do so. The USD-JPY is already back above pre-disaster levels and
there is increasing appetite to buy the carry favourites.

The intervention is offering downside protection on USD-JPY, and suppressed
volatility. Carry currencies such as AUD, BRL,TRY, and ZAR are all now
benefiting.

This has distorting consequences for the CHF as well. If the market turns
risk averse the JPY no longer offers a safety valve. This leaves the much
less liquid CHF at the mercy of those looking for safety. So suppressing
volatility in the JPY could cause increased volatility in the CHF.


INSTABILITY OUT OF STABILITY

In essence the idea of creating "stability" in the FX markets sows the seeds
of instability. It creates an artificial FX "level" that allows investors to
take risks and positions they might not have otherwise taken. That means the
JPY is unable to trade at an equilibrium level and is kept at an artificial
level. So in essence the G7 co-ordination will lead to unintended
consequences of a
strong CHF in a "risk off" environment and a stronger AUD, ZAR, TRY and BRL
in a "risk on" environment.

As usual with these carry trades, they will work brilliantly for a time and
then unravel very quickly. As always with the carry trade it is up the
stairs and down the elevator.

The unintended consequences of the G7 intervention are a major theme for now
- until of course the end of QE2 becomes dominant.

Thursday, March 31, 2011

USD CONTINUES ITS GRIND LOWER

PRIMARILY CTA FLOW ON THE DAY SO FAR...



EURGBP BOUGHT AS END OF MONTH FLOWS GO THRU


EUR HICP FIRM HAS PUSHED EURIBORS LOWER EURUSD 1.4110>30


SO ALL IN ALL A CONTINUATION OF ASIAN SESSION PRICE ACTION

Currency stabilization becomes key topic

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Gold & Silver Bullish reversal Candlestick pattern -Profit

Gold & Silver Bullish reversal Candlestick pattern (Morning star) -1h Timeframe


Closed with profit

Gold & Silver Bullish reversal Candlestick patterns 1h

Gold & Silver Bullish reversal Candlestick pattern  (Morning star) -1h Timeframe
Gold target:$ 1418 -stop loss: 1411
Silver target:  $36.9400 stop loss: 36.5050

AUD

Story to be aware of.


New state premier of NSW in Aus…announcing the discovery of a AUD4.5 bio hole in the state budget..prompting accusations from him that Labour were cooking the books etc and if they were revealed to the ratings agency back in Nov during a trip in Dec, a review of the state’s AAA status would have been triggered.



Switzerland - IMF Invites the SNB to Hike

The IMF, in its regular Article IV report on the Swiss economy, has invited the SNB to start to hike rates soon in response to stronger-than-expected real growth and “disappearing” slack.




Thursday, March 24, 2011

REAL MONEY A/C...adjusting hedges...this move now forcing med term funds into the mkt...not just a stop loss driven move any more.


Moody's ..on UK...

MOODY'S -
CONTINUED UIK COMMITMENT TO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION CRITICAL TO AAA RATING
- RISKS TO UK GROWTH SKEWED TO DOWNSIDE, ECONOMY PARTICULAR CHALLENGE AT MOMENT
 - RISK SLOWER GROWTH AND WEAKER FISCAL CONSOLIDATION COULD ENDANGER AAA RATING                                       
               not that helpful..post soft retails sales
 
On the Moody's comments about the UK. The rating agency has mentioned these arguments before but what matters is that it comes just after the Budget. It's not a great sign of confidence but Moody's is only talking about the risks, which has mentioned a number of times in the past.

Talk that Japan is checking USDJPY levels!


EUR lower on Portugal and Moody’s , but selling pressure been relatively light … EURJPY selling from CTA’s a small standout.


Wednesday, March 23, 2011

FT: Portugal crisis threatens to trigger poll:

We all know the issues with Portugal at mom, but this a handy article as a reminder of all the important names to look out for in this current bout of unrest on the Portuguese front....
  http://on.ft.com/h9XA4s              

Portugal crisis threatens to trigger poll                                 By Peter Wise in Lisbon
Portuguese opposition parties have refused to back austerity measures drafted to help the country avoid a bail-out, in a rebuff that could trigger both a snap election and an international financial rescue.
The political crisis in Lisbon threatens to dominate a European Union summit on Thursday, at which leaders hope to finalise "a grand bargain" to resolve the eurozone debt crisis.
Portugal’s cost of borrowing hit new euro-eras highs on Tuesday, with the yield on five-year government bonds rising above 8 per cent for the first time. The new austerity measures, designed by the minority Socialist government with input from the European Central Bank and the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, are intended to reassure nervous markets that the country will meet its debt payments.
Senior political figures appealed to Aníbal Cavaco Silva, Portugal’s conservative president, to intervene to ensure the country was not left without an effective government ahead of the summit.
José Sócrates, the embattled prime minister, has refused to follow Greece and Ireland in seeking a financial rescue package. But opposition parties have refused to back a fourth austerity package, which could force the government to resign and trigger a snap election.
Pedro Passos Coelho, leader of the centre-right Social Democrats (PSD), the main opposition party, rejected a government offer for talks on the measures, saying an early general election was "inevitable".
Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, finance minister, said a political crisis would make it difficult for the government to finance its debt and could force Portugal to seek a financial rescue from the EU and International Monetary Fund.
Even if Mr Sócrates does resign on Wednesday, he would still be expected to attend the EU summit as Portugal’s outgoing prime minister in a caretaker capacity. It would then fall to Mr Cavaco Silva to decide whether to call an early election, which could take two months to prepare, or invite other parties to form a new government.
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a senior PSD leader, called for a "grand coalition" between his party, the Socialists and the small conservative Popular party to ensure the strongest possible commitment to a credible deficit-reduction programme.
Mr Passos Coelho added that "a broad coalition for change" resulting from an early election would lend greater authority to Portugal’s deficit-reduction programme and provide "unfailing support to structural reform program aimed at fiscal consolidation, public debt reduction and economic growth".
The PSD has committed itself to the same fiscal targets as the Socialist government, which aims to cut the budget deficit to 4.6 per cent of gross domestic product this year and 3 per cent in 2012, down from 7 per cent last year.
But the party, which enjoys a lead in the opinion polls, said it could not support the government’s latest austerity measures because they were likely to prove "limited and ineffectual" and demanded unjust sacrifices from "the most vulnerable members of society".
Mr Sócrates, who has been in office for six years, has made it clear that he would fight for re-election as prime minister in the event of an early poll.

World Bank chief economist says CNY likely to become a global reserve currency


Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Yemen - the basics - why does it matter?

Yemen matters more to Saudi Arabia than Lybia:

Stats first:
1. Population: 24mio, which is huge around here. Same as Saudi or 5 times the UAE 2. GDP. Tiny, just $2600 per person 3. Oil. Negligible, 150k bpd (Saudi = 10mio) 4. NOT a member of the GCC 5. President Saleh. 32 years in power. Oversaw unification of North and South in 1990, survived the 1994 civil war

Why it matters to Saudi Arabia:
1. Al Qaeda. The links are strong, Bin Laden is a Yemeni 2. 1500km border 3. Oil tankers. Saudi tankers exiting from the Red Sea can only access the Indian Ocean by passing a strait between Djibouti and Yemen. As the Straits of Hormuz worry Gulf shipping and Saudi's Eastern oil fields, so this one worries Saudi's Western oil fields.

2. Last year Saudi used artillery and aircraft to strike at rebels in Yemen's north. US drones regularly do the same. They achieve little 5. It has the look of a failed state, with no route to success. The economy offers almost nothing beyond a great natural port in Aden and a stimulative plant called qat.

3. There's no easy solution. Yemen's mountainous North has never been conquered, even by the Ottomans. The next Afghanistan?

4. Which leaves only hope that Yemen's problems aren't exported. Tribal links to Saudi's South make that hope a forlorn one.


BOJ ...how much did they buy on Friday?

BOJ money market data suggests total of around 530 BLN YEN was sold in FX MARKET intervention on Friday so a lot less than the 25 bio mkt suggested.